By Camden Conference | Jan 09, 2011
Share
(Courtesy of: Camden Conference)
The dimension of culture is vital in Asian history and development. When cultural traditions are ignored or undervalued, the results may bring outcomes not intended by experts or leaders directing economic or political planning. When appreciated as a fact of social life, culture may contribute powerfully to the analysis of what will succeed in an Asian setting.
Join cultural anthropologist Dr. Phil McKean for a discussion of modernization efforts in Bali, Indonesia, including the “green revolution” in the irrigated rice fields, and the growth of international “cultural tourism.” This event takes place on Sunday, January 16, from 3:00 – 4:30 PM at the Cushing Public Library and is free and open to all.
Dr. McKean will explore how an appreciation of culture can bring a deeper understanding of the changes in Bali in the past several decades in such important areas as sustainable agriculture for growing populations, and the retention of local and regional identity in the face of global communications. He may even conjure some suggestions for future U.S. policy towards the societies of Asia.
Phil McKean has taught at Hampshire College, Brown and Udayana Universities, and Coastal Senior College. His Ph.D. is in Cultural Anthropology, based on his research in Bali. He lives in Cushing with his wife, Deborah.
This community event is hosted by the Cushing Public Library in anticipation of the 24th Annual Camden Conference: “The Challenges of Asia,” February 18-20, 2011. For more information on this event, please call the Library directly at 207-354-7212.
The Camden Conference is a nonprofit, non-partisan educational organization whose mission is to foster informed discourse on world affairs through year-round community events, public and student engagement, and an annual weekend Conference featuring distinguished speakers focusing on a central theme related to U.S. foreign affairs. For more information, please visit www.camdenconference.org or call 236-1034.
Culture as a Dimension of Development: The Case of Bali, Indonesia
By Camden Conference | Jan 09, 2011
Share
(Courtesy of: Camden Conference)
The dimension of culture is vital in Asian history and development. When cultural traditions are ignored or undervalued, the results may bring outcomes not intended by experts or leaders directing economic or political planning. When appreciated as a fact of social life, culture may contribute powerfully to the analysis of what will succeed in an Asian setting.
Join cultural anthropologist Dr. Phil McKean for a discussion of modernization efforts in Bali, Indonesia, including the “green revolution” in the irrigated rice fields, and the growth of international “cultural tourism.” This event takes place on Sunday, January 16, from 3:00 – 4:30 PM at the Cushing Public Library and is free and open to all.
Dr. McKean will explore how an appreciation of culture can bring a deeper understanding of the changes in Bali in the past several decades in such important areas as sustainable agriculture for growing populations, and the retention of local and regional identity in the face of global communications. He may even conjure some suggestions for future U.S. policy towards the societies of Asia.
Phil McKean has taught at Hampshire College, Brown and Udayana Universities, and Coastal Senior College. His Ph.D. is in Cultural Anthropology, based on his research in Bali. He lives in Cushing with his wife, Deborah.
This community event is hosted by the Cushing Public Library in anticipation of the 24th Annual Camden Conference: “The Challenges of Asia,” February 18-20, 2011. For more information on this event, please call the Library directly at 207-354-7212.
The Camden Conference is a nonprofit, non-partisan educational organization whose mission is to foster informed discourse on world affairs through year-round community events, public and student engagement, and an annual weekend Conference featuring distinguished speakers focusing on a central theme related to U.S. foreign affairs. For more information, please visit www.camdenconference.org or call 236-1034.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Culture as a Dimension of Development: The Case of Bali, Indonesia
By Camden Conference | Jan 09, 2011
Share
(Courtesy of: Camden Conference)
The dimension of culture is vital in Asian history and development. When cultural traditions are ignored or undervalued, the results may bring outcomes not intended by experts or leaders directing economic or political planning. When appreciated as a fact of social life, culture may contribute powerfully to the analysis of what will succeed in an Asian setting.
Join cultural anthropologist Dr. Phil McKean for a discussion of modernization efforts in Bali, Indonesia, including the “green revolution” in the irrigated rice fields, and the growth of international “cultural tourism.” This event takes place on Sunday, January 16, from 3:00 – 4:30 PM at the Cushing Public Library and is free and open to all.
Dr. McKean will explore how an appreciation of culture can bring a deeper understanding of the changes in Bali in the past several decades in such important areas as sustainable agriculture for growing populations, and the retention of local and regional identity in the face of global communications. He may even conjure some suggestions for future U.S. policy towards the societies of Asia.
Phil McKean has taught at Hampshire College, Brown and Udayana Universities, and Coastal Senior College. His Ph.D. is in Cultural Anthropology, based on his research in Bali. He lives in Cushing with his wife, Deborah.
This community event is hosted by the Cushing Public Library in anticipation of the 24th Annual Camden Conference: “The Challenges of Asia,” February 18-20, 2011. For more information on this event, please call the Library directly at 207-354-7212.
The Camden Conference is a nonprofit, non-partisan educational organization whose mission is to foster informed discourse on world affairs through year-round community events, public and student engagement, and an annual weekend Conference featuring distinguished speakers focusing on a central theme related to U.S. foreign affairs. For more information, please visit www.camdenconference.org or call 236-1034.
http://waldo.villagesoup.com/business/brief/education/culture-as-a-dimension-of-development-the-case-of-bali-indonesia/373761
Share
(Courtesy of: Camden Conference)
The dimension of culture is vital in Asian history and development. When cultural traditions are ignored or undervalued, the results may bring outcomes not intended by experts or leaders directing economic or political planning. When appreciated as a fact of social life, culture may contribute powerfully to the analysis of what will succeed in an Asian setting.
Join cultural anthropologist Dr. Phil McKean for a discussion of modernization efforts in Bali, Indonesia, including the “green revolution” in the irrigated rice fields, and the growth of international “cultural tourism.” This event takes place on Sunday, January 16, from 3:00 – 4:30 PM at the Cushing Public Library and is free and open to all.
Dr. McKean will explore how an appreciation of culture can bring a deeper understanding of the changes in Bali in the past several decades in such important areas as sustainable agriculture for growing populations, and the retention of local and regional identity in the face of global communications. He may even conjure some suggestions for future U.S. policy towards the societies of Asia.
Phil McKean has taught at Hampshire College, Brown and Udayana Universities, and Coastal Senior College. His Ph.D. is in Cultural Anthropology, based on his research in Bali. He lives in Cushing with his wife, Deborah.
This community event is hosted by the Cushing Public Library in anticipation of the 24th Annual Camden Conference: “The Challenges of Asia,” February 18-20, 2011. For more information on this event, please call the Library directly at 207-354-7212.
The Camden Conference is a nonprofit, non-partisan educational organization whose mission is to foster informed discourse on world affairs through year-round community events, public and student engagement, and an annual weekend Conference featuring distinguished speakers focusing on a central theme related to U.S. foreign affairs. For more information, please visit www.camdenconference.org or call 236-1034.
http://waldo.villagesoup.com/business/brief/education/culture-as-a-dimension-of-development-the-case-of-bali-indonesia/373761
Indonesia Will Eliminate Tariffs on Imports of Wheat
farmIndonesia will eliminate tariffs on imports of wheat, soybeans and cattle feed, said on Friday by the chief minister of economy, in an attempt to improve household food supply and forestall possible protests over the escalating prices. As it is known, Indonesia is on of the developing country in South East Asia that has so many resources of fiber food.
“The measure will take effect next week,” said Hatta Rajasa in a press conference after the Cabinet met this week to discuss the stability of food prices. The official said he had not decided on the elimination of tariffs on sugar.
Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia depends on imports of sugar, soybeans and wheat, and sometimes the imports of rice and corn. Protests over food prices are considered as a factor behind the fall of Suharto in 1998. Rising food costs drove annual inflation to seven percent in December, the highest level in 20 months.
The Organization of the United Nations Food and Agriculture (FAO) said on Wednesday that food prices rose to a record last month, which exceeded the levels in 2008 generated a series of raids in several countries . The government expects food prices they yield local harvest begins in February.
http://www.coffetoday.com/indonesia-will-eliminate-tariffs-on-imports-of-wheat/908047/
“The measure will take effect next week,” said Hatta Rajasa in a press conference after the Cabinet met this week to discuss the stability of food prices. The official said he had not decided on the elimination of tariffs on sugar.
Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia depends on imports of sugar, soybeans and wheat, and sometimes the imports of rice and corn. Protests over food prices are considered as a factor behind the fall of Suharto in 1998. Rising food costs drove annual inflation to seven percent in December, the highest level in 20 months.
The Organization of the United Nations Food and Agriculture (FAO) said on Wednesday that food prices rose to a record last month, which exceeded the levels in 2008 generated a series of raids in several countries . The government expects food prices they yield local harvest begins in February.
http://www.coffetoday.com/indonesia-will-eliminate-tariffs-on-imports-of-wheat/908047/
7 Reasons Why Food Shortages Will Become Global Crisis
(Activist Post) Food inflation is here and it’s here to stay. We can see it getting worse every time we buy groceries. Basic food commodities like wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice have been skyrocketing since July, 2010 to record highs. These sustained price increases are only expected to continue as food production shortfalls really begin to take their toll this year and beyond.
This summer Russia banned exports of wheat to ensure their nation’s supply, which sparked complaints of protectionism. The U.S. agriculture community is already talking about rationing corn over ethanol mandates versus supply concerns. We’ve seen nothing yet in terms of food protectionism.
Global food shortages have forced emergency meetings at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization where they claim “urgent action” is needed. They point to extreme weather as the main contributing factor to the growing food shortages. However, commodity speculation has also been targeted as one of the culprits.
It seems that the crisis would also present the perfect opportunity and the justification for the large GMO food companies to force their products into skeptical markets like in Europe and Japan, as recently leaked cables suggest. One thing is for sure; food shortages will likely continue to get worse and eventually become a full-scale global food crisis.
Here are seven reasons why food shortages are here to stay on a worldwide scale:
1. Extreme Weather: Extreme weather has been a major problem for global food; from summer droughts and heat waves that devastated Russia’s wheat crop to the ongoing catastrophes from ‘biblical flooding’ in Australia and Pakistan. And it doesn’t end there. An extreme winter cold snap and snow has struck the whole of Europe and the United States. Staple crops are failing in all of these regions making an already fragile harvest in 2010 even more critical into 2011. Based on the recent past, extreme weather conditions are only likely to continue and perhaps worsen in the coming years.
2. Bee Colony Collapse: The Guardian reported this week on the USDA’s study on bee colony decline in the United States: “The abundance of four common species of bumblebee in the US has dropped by 96% in just the past few decades.” It is generally understood that bees pollinate around 90% of the world’s commercial crops. Obviously, if these numbers are remotely close to accurate, then our natural food supply is in serious trouble. Luckily for us, the GMO giants have seeds that don’t require open pollination to bear fruit.
3. Collapsing Dollar: Commodity speculation has resulted in massive food inflation that is already creating crisis levels in poor regions in the world. Food commodity prices have soared to record highs mainly because they trade in the ever-weakening dollar. Traders will point to the circumstances described in this article to justify their gambles, but also that food represents a tangible investment in an era of worthless paper. Because the debt problems in the United States are only getting worse, and nations such as China and Russia are dropping the dollar as their trade vehicle, the dollar will continue to weaken, further driving all commodity prices higher.
4. Regulatory Crackdown: Even before the FDA was given broad new powers to regulate food in the recent Food Safety Modernization Act, small farms were being raided and regulated out of business. Now, the new food bill essentially puts food safety under the direction of the Department of Homeland Security where the food cartel uses the government to further consolidate their control over the industry. Militant police action is taken against farmers suspected of falling short on quality regulations. It is the power to intimidate innocent small farmers out of the business.
5. Rising oil prices: In 2008, record oil prices that topped $147 per barrel drove food prices to new highs. Rice tripled in 6 months during the surge of oil prices, along with other food commodities. The price of oil affects food on multiple levels; from plowing fields, fertilizers and pesticides, to harvesting and hauling. Flash forward to 2011: many experts are predicting that oil may reach upwards of $150-$200 per barrel in the months ahead. As oil closed out 2010 at its 2-year highs of $95/bbl, it is likely on pace to continue climbing. Again, a weakening dollar will also play its part in driving oil prices, and consequently, food prices to crisis levels.
6. Increased Soil Pollution: Geo-engineering has been taking place on a grand scale in the United States for decades now. Previously known in conspiracy circles as ‘chemtrailing,’ the government has now admitted to these experiments claiming they are plan “B” to combat global warming. The patents involved in this spraying are heavy in aluminum. This mass aluminum contamination is killing plants and trees and making the soil sterile to most crops. In an astonishing coincidence, GMO companies have patented aluminum-resistant seeds to save the day.
7. GMO Giants: Because of growing awareness of the health affects of GM foods, several countries have rejected planting them. Therefore, they would seem to need a food crisis to be seen as the savior in countries currently opposed to their products. A leaked WikiLeaks cable confirms that this is indeed the strategy for GMO giants, where trade secretaries reportedly “noted that commodity price hikes might spur greater liberalization on biotech imports.” Since GMO giants already control much of the food supply, it seems they can also easily manipulate prices to achieve complete global control of food.
The equation is actually quite simple: food is a relatively inelastic commodity in terms of demand. In other words, people need to eat no matter how bad the economy gets. Thus, demand can be basically measured by the size of the population. Therefore, as demand remains steady while the 7 supply pressures outlined above continue to worsen, food prices will have only one place to go — up, up, and up.
As international agencies scramble to find “solutions,” their energy may be just as well spent on questioning if this famine scenario is being purposely manipulated for profits. Regardless, the average person would be very wise to stock up on food staples as an investment, and frankly to survive the worsening food crisis.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&view=bsp&ver=ohhl4rw8mbn4
This summer Russia banned exports of wheat to ensure their nation’s supply, which sparked complaints of protectionism. The U.S. agriculture community is already talking about rationing corn over ethanol mandates versus supply concerns. We’ve seen nothing yet in terms of food protectionism.
Global food shortages have forced emergency meetings at the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization where they claim “urgent action” is needed. They point to extreme weather as the main contributing factor to the growing food shortages. However, commodity speculation has also been targeted as one of the culprits.
It seems that the crisis would also present the perfect opportunity and the justification for the large GMO food companies to force their products into skeptical markets like in Europe and Japan, as recently leaked cables suggest. One thing is for sure; food shortages will likely continue to get worse and eventually become a full-scale global food crisis.
Here are seven reasons why food shortages are here to stay on a worldwide scale:
1. Extreme Weather: Extreme weather has been a major problem for global food; from summer droughts and heat waves that devastated Russia’s wheat crop to the ongoing catastrophes from ‘biblical flooding’ in Australia and Pakistan. And it doesn’t end there. An extreme winter cold snap and snow has struck the whole of Europe and the United States. Staple crops are failing in all of these regions making an already fragile harvest in 2010 even more critical into 2011. Based on the recent past, extreme weather conditions are only likely to continue and perhaps worsen in the coming years.
2. Bee Colony Collapse: The Guardian reported this week on the USDA’s study on bee colony decline in the United States: “The abundance of four common species of bumblebee in the US has dropped by 96% in just the past few decades.” It is generally understood that bees pollinate around 90% of the world’s commercial crops. Obviously, if these numbers are remotely close to accurate, then our natural food supply is in serious trouble. Luckily for us, the GMO giants have seeds that don’t require open pollination to bear fruit.
3. Collapsing Dollar: Commodity speculation has resulted in massive food inflation that is already creating crisis levels in poor regions in the world. Food commodity prices have soared to record highs mainly because they trade in the ever-weakening dollar. Traders will point to the circumstances described in this article to justify their gambles, but also that food represents a tangible investment in an era of worthless paper. Because the debt problems in the United States are only getting worse, and nations such as China and Russia are dropping the dollar as their trade vehicle, the dollar will continue to weaken, further driving all commodity prices higher.
4. Regulatory Crackdown: Even before the FDA was given broad new powers to regulate food in the recent Food Safety Modernization Act, small farms were being raided and regulated out of business. Now, the new food bill essentially puts food safety under the direction of the Department of Homeland Security where the food cartel uses the government to further consolidate their control over the industry. Militant police action is taken against farmers suspected of falling short on quality regulations. It is the power to intimidate innocent small farmers out of the business.
5. Rising oil prices: In 2008, record oil prices that topped $147 per barrel drove food prices to new highs. Rice tripled in 6 months during the surge of oil prices, along with other food commodities. The price of oil affects food on multiple levels; from plowing fields, fertilizers and pesticides, to harvesting and hauling. Flash forward to 2011: many experts are predicting that oil may reach upwards of $150-$200 per barrel in the months ahead. As oil closed out 2010 at its 2-year highs of $95/bbl, it is likely on pace to continue climbing. Again, a weakening dollar will also play its part in driving oil prices, and consequently, food prices to crisis levels.
6. Increased Soil Pollution: Geo-engineering has been taking place on a grand scale in the United States for decades now. Previously known in conspiracy circles as ‘chemtrailing,’ the government has now admitted to these experiments claiming they are plan “B” to combat global warming. The patents involved in this spraying are heavy in aluminum. This mass aluminum contamination is killing plants and trees and making the soil sterile to most crops. In an astonishing coincidence, GMO companies have patented aluminum-resistant seeds to save the day.
7. GMO Giants: Because of growing awareness of the health affects of GM foods, several countries have rejected planting them. Therefore, they would seem to need a food crisis to be seen as the savior in countries currently opposed to their products. A leaked WikiLeaks cable confirms that this is indeed the strategy for GMO giants, where trade secretaries reportedly “noted that commodity price hikes might spur greater liberalization on biotech imports.” Since GMO giants already control much of the food supply, it seems they can also easily manipulate prices to achieve complete global control of food.
The equation is actually quite simple: food is a relatively inelastic commodity in terms of demand. In other words, people need to eat no matter how bad the economy gets. Thus, demand can be basically measured by the size of the population. Therefore, as demand remains steady while the 7 supply pressures outlined above continue to worsen, food prices will have only one place to go — up, up, and up.
As international agencies scramble to find “solutions,” their energy may be just as well spent on questioning if this famine scenario is being purposely manipulated for profits. Regardless, the average person would be very wise to stock up on food staples as an investment, and frankly to survive the worsening food crisis.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?ui=2&view=bsp&ver=ohhl4rw8mbn4
Friday, January 7, 2011
Hog and pork prices expected to soar in 2011
Hog and pork prices expected to soar in 2011
Hog and pork prices are expected to launch to record highs in 2011 due to a combination of high demand, high feed costs, and a smaller herd.
"Foreign buyers are expected to elevate pork exports by 10 percent," said Chris Hurt, a Purdue University Extension economist. "Pork exports are expected to represent a record 21 percent of domestic production. The combination of modestly lower production and higher exports means that the available supply per person in the United States will drop by nearly 3 percent in 2011. This will be the foundation for record retail pork prices as there will be less pork available at a time when U.S. consumers economic conditions are improving."
Live hog prices in 2011 are expected to exceed $60 per live hundredweight, or more than $80 on a lean basis. "The stimulus will come from smaller per capita U.S. supplies, from much stronger demand driven by recovering U.S. and world economies, and by the inflationary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve," Hurt said.
How high can hog prices go in 2011? "Historically $90 lean prices, or about $67 live, were the top of futures markets," Hurt said.
Some current futures prices now exceed $90 for the spring and summer delivery contracts and raise the possibility of them reaching $100, or $75 live.
"Some may argue that there is no historic precedence for prices that high," Hurt said. "But, there's no historic base for costs of production this high as well. So, a new era of high costs probably means there will eventually be a new era of record high hog and pork prices."
Current forecasts are for hog prices to average more than $60 live for 2011. The previous record annual high was about $55.50 in 1982. By quarter, those prices are expected to average in the high-$50s in the first quarter, move toward the mid-$60s for the second and third quarters, and average in the mid-$50s in the final quarter.
"Record-high hog prices would seem to suggest great profit prospects for pork producers in 2011," Hurt said. "Of course that's not the case as feed costs aim toward a break-even year with costs estimated to be slightly over $60 as well."
Hog prices are expected to rise sharply in 2011 from the current low-$50s and move into the hig-$50s by late February and March. At this point, the industry will be back to near break-even prices, Hurt said. "Prices are expected to march toward the high-$60s in late May and June. The spring and summer quarters are expected to provide profitable production before sliding back to break-evens in the mid-$50s for the last quarter of the year."
Hurt said that the pork industry has been downsizing in response to high feed prices and will drop modestly in 2011. In December of 2007, the U.S. breeding herd stood at 6.233 million head. Today the herd is at 5.778 million head or a 7 percent reduction.
"Pork consumers will finally be feeling the pain of high feed prices in the record retail prices they will face in 2011," Hurt said.
The USDA December Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers reduced the size of the breeding herd last year by 72,000 head, or about 1percent. The 2010 reduction was focused in North Carolina which had a reduction of 90,000 head. Farrowing intentions were down 1 percent for this winter and down two percent for this coming spring. This means some additional herd liquidation will be likely this winter, Hurt said.
Hurt suggests that the Federal Reserve policy of quantitative easing (QE2) also be considered as a stimulator of commodity prices. "Since the Fed announced their policy in late August 2010, commodity prices have moved up, but meats have lagged in those increases," he said.
As an example, Hurt said the April 2011 CRB commodity index futures have risen about 26 percent while the April 2011 live cattle futures have only increased 10 percent and the May 2011 lean hogs have risen 14 percent. In contrast May 2011 corn futures are up 37 percent and May 2011 soybean meal has been up 27 percent.
"While each commodity has its own supply-and-demand situation, this may be an indicator that the full bullish impact of QE2 is yet to come to the meat complex," he said.
Corn prices and yield will also play a role. "The U.S. average price of corn in 2011 may be $5.75 per bushel, compared to $4.78 for calendar year 2008. High-protein soybean meal is estimated at $363 compared to $331 in 2008. The total estimated costs for 2011 are $60.50 per live hundredweight compared with $54 in 2008," Hurt said.
He added that farrow-to-finish operations had profits of about $12 per head in 2010, however, this came after estimated losses of $17 and $24 per head in 2008 and 2009. In addition, the industry is currently operating at losses estimated at $22 per head in the final quarter of 2010 and an estimated $11 of loss in the first quarter of 2011.
"Better corn yields in 2011 would help moderate feed costs, but those better yields are still far off with a lot of weather to worry about in both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres over the next nine months," Hurt said. "The most optimistic prospects for hog producers are that they continue to trim the breeding herd in the first half of 2011 and have high corn yields next summer. This would provide robust profits for 2012. If yields are not high in 2011, then losses could return for 2012."
Hog and pork prices are expected to launch to record highs in 2011 due to a combination of high demand, high feed costs, and a smaller herd.
"Foreign buyers are expected to elevate pork exports by 10 percent," said Chris Hurt, a Purdue University Extension economist. "Pork exports are expected to represent a record 21 percent of domestic production. The combination of modestly lower production and higher exports means that the available supply per person in the United States will drop by nearly 3 percent in 2011. This will be the foundation for record retail pork prices as there will be less pork available at a time when U.S. consumers economic conditions are improving."
Live hog prices in 2011 are expected to exceed $60 per live hundredweight, or more than $80 on a lean basis. "The stimulus will come from smaller per capita U.S. supplies, from much stronger demand driven by recovering U.S. and world economies, and by the inflationary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve," Hurt said.
How high can hog prices go in 2011? "Historically $90 lean prices, or about $67 live, were the top of futures markets," Hurt said.
Some current futures prices now exceed $90 for the spring and summer delivery contracts and raise the possibility of them reaching $100, or $75 live.
"Some may argue that there is no historic precedence for prices that high," Hurt said. "But, there's no historic base for costs of production this high as well. So, a new era of high costs probably means there will eventually be a new era of record high hog and pork prices."
Current forecasts are for hog prices to average more than $60 live for 2011. The previous record annual high was about $55.50 in 1982. By quarter, those prices are expected to average in the high-$50s in the first quarter, move toward the mid-$60s for the second and third quarters, and average in the mid-$50s in the final quarter.
"Record-high hog prices would seem to suggest great profit prospects for pork producers in 2011," Hurt said. "Of course that's not the case as feed costs aim toward a break-even year with costs estimated to be slightly over $60 as well."
Hog prices are expected to rise sharply in 2011 from the current low-$50s and move into the hig-$50s by late February and March. At this point, the industry will be back to near break-even prices, Hurt said. "Prices are expected to march toward the high-$60s in late May and June. The spring and summer quarters are expected to provide profitable production before sliding back to break-evens in the mid-$50s for the last quarter of the year."
Hurt said that the pork industry has been downsizing in response to high feed prices and will drop modestly in 2011. In December of 2007, the U.S. breeding herd stood at 6.233 million head. Today the herd is at 5.778 million head or a 7 percent reduction.
"Pork consumers will finally be feeling the pain of high feed prices in the record retail prices they will face in 2011," Hurt said.
The USDA December Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers reduced the size of the breeding herd last year by 72,000 head, or about 1percent. The 2010 reduction was focused in North Carolina which had a reduction of 90,000 head. Farrowing intentions were down 1 percent for this winter and down two percent for this coming spring. This means some additional herd liquidation will be likely this winter, Hurt said.
Hurt suggests that the Federal Reserve policy of quantitative easing (QE2) also be considered as a stimulator of commodity prices. "Since the Fed announced their policy in late August 2010, commodity prices have moved up, but meats have lagged in those increases," he said.
As an example, Hurt said the April 2011 CRB commodity index futures have risen about 26 percent while the April 2011 live cattle futures have only increased 10 percent and the May 2011 lean hogs have risen 14 percent. In contrast May 2011 corn futures are up 37 percent and May 2011 soybean meal has been up 27 percent.
"While each commodity has its own supply-and-demand situation, this may be an indicator that the full bullish impact of QE2 is yet to come to the meat complex," he said.
Corn prices and yield will also play a role. "The U.S. average price of corn in 2011 may be $5.75 per bushel, compared to $4.78 for calendar year 2008. High-protein soybean meal is estimated at $363 compared to $331 in 2008. The total estimated costs for 2011 are $60.50 per live hundredweight compared with $54 in 2008," Hurt said.
He added that farrow-to-finish operations had profits of about $12 per head in 2010, however, this came after estimated losses of $17 and $24 per head in 2008 and 2009. In addition, the industry is currently operating at losses estimated at $22 per head in the final quarter of 2010 and an estimated $11 of loss in the first quarter of 2011.
"Better corn yields in 2011 would help moderate feed costs, but those better yields are still far off with a lot of weather to worry about in both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres over the next nine months," Hurt said. "The most optimistic prospects for hog producers are that they continue to trim the breeding herd in the first half of 2011 and have high corn yields next summer. This would provide robust profits for 2012. If yields are not high in 2011, then losses could return for 2012."
Thursday, January 6, 2011
How to Invest in Chinese Currency RMB in Singapore?
By Kenny Thong
Article Word Count: 370 [View Summary] Comments (1)
The rise of China has led to many people wanted to invest in the Chinese currency RMB as they think that with the economic growth of China, the RMB will continue to rise, especially RMB is currently undervalue against other currencies.
The problem with "investing" in the RMB is that there is no foreign currency deposit in RMB for investors to deposit in. So how does one play the RMB currency in Singapore? This question was posted to me a few times.
As the RMB is not a free currency that has offshore market, it is virtually not possible to buy RMB outside China.
One way to play it is to invest in the Chinese stock market. This is not a direct play, however, as the value of the Chinese stocks are influenced by other factors which may not be the same as those factors that affects the currency. Nevertheless, if the general growth for the country continues, the equity market should continue to perform well, so will the currency. A word of caution, as the Chinese equity market has run up much more than the currency, if there is a correction in the Chinese market, the lost on the equity investment may be more than the currency depreciation.
The other way is to open a RMB account with a bank in Hong Kong, as Hong Kong is allowed to take in RMB deposit. However, this route is impractical for many people. Furthermore, it is unclear if non Hong Kong resident can open a RMB deposit account.
The last method, which to me is the purest play on the RMB, is going through the futures market. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has a USD/RMB futures contract. Therefore if one is bullish on the RMB, one should short the USD/RMB futures contract. This is not for the faint hearted. Furthermore, futures contract has expiry date whereby one needs to rollover the contract if he still wants to continue to have the exposure, unlike fixed deposit whereby the bank can rollover automatically for you. However, the futures contract does provide a cheap and efficient way of having an exposure in foreign currencies, much more efficient than the fixed deposit market.
I am currently an Investment Manager with a private equity firm, and a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) qualification.
http://moneyandsenses.blogspot.com
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Kenny_Thong
Article Word Count: 370 [View Summary] Comments (1)
The rise of China has led to many people wanted to invest in the Chinese currency RMB as they think that with the economic growth of China, the RMB will continue to rise, especially RMB is currently undervalue against other currencies.
The problem with "investing" in the RMB is that there is no foreign currency deposit in RMB for investors to deposit in. So how does one play the RMB currency in Singapore? This question was posted to me a few times.
As the RMB is not a free currency that has offshore market, it is virtually not possible to buy RMB outside China.
One way to play it is to invest in the Chinese stock market. This is not a direct play, however, as the value of the Chinese stocks are influenced by other factors which may not be the same as those factors that affects the currency. Nevertheless, if the general growth for the country continues, the equity market should continue to perform well, so will the currency. A word of caution, as the Chinese equity market has run up much more than the currency, if there is a correction in the Chinese market, the lost on the equity investment may be more than the currency depreciation.
The other way is to open a RMB account with a bank in Hong Kong, as Hong Kong is allowed to take in RMB deposit. However, this route is impractical for many people. Furthermore, it is unclear if non Hong Kong resident can open a RMB deposit account.
The last method, which to me is the purest play on the RMB, is going through the futures market. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has a USD/RMB futures contract. Therefore if one is bullish on the RMB, one should short the USD/RMB futures contract. This is not for the faint hearted. Furthermore, futures contract has expiry date whereby one needs to rollover the contract if he still wants to continue to have the exposure, unlike fixed deposit whereby the bank can rollover automatically for you. However, the futures contract does provide a cheap and efficient way of having an exposure in foreign currencies, much more efficient than the fixed deposit market.
I am currently an Investment Manager with a private equity firm, and a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) qualification.
http://moneyandsenses.blogspot.com
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Kenny_Thong
Gloomy US jobless claims…
06 January 2011 @ 08:36 am EDT
The US released its initial jobless claims for January 1 showing a gloomy incline to come in at 409 thousand; higher than the predicted 405 thousand and the prior 388 thousand, while that the continuing claims for December 25 inclined as well to 4103 thousand; worse than the forecasted 4085 thousand and the prior reading of 4128 thousand.
The US released its initial jobless claims for January 1 showing a gloomy incline to come in at 409 thousand; higher than the predicted 405 thousand and the prior 388 thousand, while that the continuing claims for December 25 inclined as well to 4103 thousand; worse than the forecasted 4085 thousand and the prior reading of 4128 thousand.
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