Bali News Two of my recommendations since the beginning of last year and 2011 have been corn and soybeans. It appears that current shortages may lead to even higher prices in the future. I am currently long on both investments.
USDA report bullish for corn, soybeans
U.S. corn ending stocks 2nd lowest rate since mid-1990s
January 16, 2011 - By LARRY KERSHNER, For the Messenger
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For those with grain to sell, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest crop production and supply/demand report was good news.
For those with grain to feed or buy, not such good news.
The new report, issued Wednesday morning, had pushed corn futures up by as high as 28 cents by midday - $6.35 per bushel for March futures - and soybeans up by 66 cents, to $14.23 for March.
What was pushing the price was U.S. and world ending stock numbers, said Darin Newsom, DTN senior analyst, during a morning webinar prior to markets opening.
U.S. ending stocks for corn was whittled by the USDA report to 14.2 billion bushels, or about 5.5 percent.
"This is a very, very tight situation,"?Newsom said, adding that stocks were not this low since 1995. "Tightening stocks will continue to push markets up."
Newsom credited ethanol's continued demand increase as the largest growing sector of corn demand.
Even with the rising cost of corn, Newsom told Farm News he expected ethanol demand to remain consistent as long as petroleum prices remained high and gas demand was consistent.
"This is different than in 2008 when the petroleum price collapsed,"?Newsom said. "As gas demand goes up it requires more ethanol. The key is watching future spreads."
However if corn prices soar well into the $7 range, it may cause ethanol distillers to begin struggling, he said, but then added, "It may be that ethanol is getting used to the high prices.
"We're just not seeing the sharp reactions as in 2008."
Concern for dairy
For the dairy industry, Newsom said that although the class III milk market has stabilized, "it's still a difficult time out there.
"How long can it survive these higher prices in corn?"
He indicated that survival will depend on output prices somehow catching up to input prices.
He said that just within the first quarter of the fiscal year, 30 percent of the 2010 harvest has been exhausted.
World ending stock for corn was also lowered as worldwide demand for corn is also climbing, the largest seen since 1995.
Worldwide ending stocks is estimated 127 million metric tons, or about 15 percent - the lowest since the mid-1970s - which was much lower than analysts were expecting, Newsom said.
Part of this decrease, Newsom noted, was a drop in the expected supply from Argentina.
When asked if China will re-enter buying significant U.S. corn as it did last year, Newsom said "it's possible, but I'm not certain China will."
Soybean ending stocks dwindling
The total U.S. harvest has been once again reduced to 3.33 billion bushels, down from the previous estimate of 3.37 bb, and less than the final 2009 harvest of 3.36 bb.
U.S. soybeans stock estimates were reduced by USDA to 140 million bushels, about 42 percent. "This is about as low as its ever been,"?Newsom said.
He said that one thing that may be helping soybeans is that export demand for soybeans has showed signs of a slight slowing. The USDA's export estimate for this marketing year was unchanged at 159 bb.
However, residual uses was increased from 3.27 bb a month ago, to 3.55 bb on Wednesday.
Concerning worldwide ending stocks, soybeans are expected to dwindle further to 58.28 million metric tons, down to 22.8 percent..
He said the Argentinan supply was lowered this month by 1.5 mmt, to account for much of the lost stocks.
"It's not as tight as the corn stocks,"?Newsom said, "but global (soybean) stocks is at a critical point."
Acre wars commencing
When asked what it will take to replenish the corn and soybean larders, Newsom said that both grains and wheat are in need of more planted acres.
In corn alone, it will require 80 million acres to replace the corn supply, an increase of 8 to 10 million acres over 2010.
He expects that all three, not to mention cotton, rice and sorghum, will be able to see an expansion in planted acres.
"Something will lose out," Newsom said, "and I expect it'll be wheat."
Contact Larry Kershner at (515) 573-2141, ext. 453 or at kersh@farm-news.com.
Showing posts with label World Investments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Investments. Show all posts
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Silver is 'common man's gold' in India as bullion expensive
Bloomberg) Silver is 'common man's gold' in India as bullion expensive
The metal is still 48 times cheaper than gold per ounce.
Demand for silver in India, where imports of the metal surged more than sixfold in the first half of 2010, is increasing as investors seek an alternative to higher-priced gold, according to a trader.
"It is increasing day by day," Ketan Shroff, Managing Director of Pushpak Bullions Pvt, said in a phone interview. Demand probably climbed at least 20% to 30% in the past six months, he said.
Silver futures in New York reached a three-decade high of $31.275 an ounce on Jan. 3, after rallying 84% in 2010. The metal is still 48 times cheaper than gold per ounce, data on the Bloomberg show. Gold for immediate delivery reached a record $1,431.25 an ounce on Dec. 7.
"People are accumulating silver since gold is getting unaffordable to the common man," Shroff said in an interview on Jan. 7. Silver "has become the common man's gold."
Weddings and festivals, and higher gold prices will likely fuel demand for silver in the medium term, broker Karvy Comtrade Ltd said in a report Nov. 2. Imports surged more than six times to $1.7 billion in the first-half of 2010, according to Karvy.
(FT Alphaville) World's Richest Man Enters the Silver Market
Here's some juicy stock market RAW to kick off 2011 - Carlos Slim, the world's richest man is looking to enter the silver market in a big way.
And that big way, according to KingWorldNews, is a bid for Fresnillo, the Mexican based mining company that is poised to become the world's biggest silver producer.
The metal is still 48 times cheaper than gold per ounce.
Demand for silver in India, where imports of the metal surged more than sixfold in the first half of 2010, is increasing as investors seek an alternative to higher-priced gold, according to a trader.
"It is increasing day by day," Ketan Shroff, Managing Director of Pushpak Bullions Pvt, said in a phone interview. Demand probably climbed at least 20% to 30% in the past six months, he said.
Silver futures in New York reached a three-decade high of $31.275 an ounce on Jan. 3, after rallying 84% in 2010. The metal is still 48 times cheaper than gold per ounce, data on the Bloomberg show. Gold for immediate delivery reached a record $1,431.25 an ounce on Dec. 7.
"People are accumulating silver since gold is getting unaffordable to the common man," Shroff said in an interview on Jan. 7. Silver "has become the common man's gold."
Weddings and festivals, and higher gold prices will likely fuel demand for silver in the medium term, broker Karvy Comtrade Ltd said in a report Nov. 2. Imports surged more than six times to $1.7 billion in the first-half of 2010, according to Karvy.
(FT Alphaville) World's Richest Man Enters the Silver Market
Here's some juicy stock market RAW to kick off 2011 - Carlos Slim, the world's richest man is looking to enter the silver market in a big way.
And that big way, according to KingWorldNews, is a bid for Fresnillo, the Mexican based mining company that is poised to become the world's biggest silver producer.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK: Lynas Corp Rises To Record On China Quota Cut
28-Dec-2010
2331 GMT [Dow Jones] Rare earths developer Lynas Corp. (LYC.AU) gets its usual fillip from news of declining Chinese rare earths exports: Lynas up 8.6%, or 14 cents, to A$1.76/share with a healthy 11.6 million shares, worth A$20.1 million, changing hands; move pips Oct. 21 A$1.76/share record for stock. Beijing ministry of commerce announced over Christmas break that 1H 2011 rare earths export quota will be 14,446 tons, 35% cut on 1H10; such announcements from China, which produces more than 90% of world's rare earths, normally drive jumps in Lynas shares, although worth noting that the latest cut brings export run rate roughly level with 2010's 30,259 tons total. (david.fickling@dowjones.com)
2331 GMT [Dow Jones] Rare earths developer Lynas Corp. (LYC.AU) gets its usual fillip from news of declining Chinese rare earths exports: Lynas up 8.6%, or 14 cents, to A$1.76/share with a healthy 11.6 million shares, worth A$20.1 million, changing hands; move pips Oct. 21 A$1.76/share record for stock. Beijing ministry of commerce announced over Christmas break that 1H 2011 rare earths export quota will be 14,446 tons, 35% cut on 1H10; such announcements from China, which produces more than 90% of world's rare earths, normally drive jumps in Lynas shares, although worth noting that the latest cut brings export run rate roughly level with 2010's 30,259 tons total. (david.fickling@dowjones.com)
Monday, December 27, 2010
ISI Index beats 10 day Mvg. avg.
ISEE
ISEE 143 12/27/2010
10-Day Moving Average 141 12/13/2010-12/27/2010
20-Day Moving Average 145 11/29/2010-12/27/2010
50-Day Moving Average 132 10/15/2010-12/27/2010
52-Week High 230 12/10/2010
52-Week Low 59 5/7/2010
View/Export All Historical Data
ISEE 143 12/27/2010
10-Day Moving Average 141 12/13/2010-12/27/2010
20-Day Moving Average 145 11/29/2010-12/27/2010
50-Day Moving Average 132 10/15/2010-12/27/2010
52-Week High 230 12/10/2010
52-Week Low 59 5/7/2010
View/Export All Historical Data
Two-thirds of Australians oppose the Singapore Stock Exchange's proposed takeover of the Australian Stock Exchange
AUSTRALIA: , The
Sydney Morning Herald reports. The report cited a poll by UMR Research
which showed 62% of Labor voters and 71% of opposition Coalition
supporters oppose the venture, an even higher level than the 65% of
Greens opponents. The result may cast deeper doubt over the chances of
Parliament giving the approval required if the government does seek the
necessary regulatory change to lift the 15% ownership cap on the ASX,
the report says.
Sydney Morning Herald reports. The report cited a poll by UMR Research
which showed 62% of Labor voters and 71% of opposition Coalition
supporters oppose the venture, an even higher level than the 65% of
Greens opponents. The result may cast deeper doubt over the chances of
Parliament giving the approval required if the government does seek the
necessary regulatory change to lift the 15% ownership cap on the ASX,
the report says.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Gold rises ahead of FOMC meeting
14 December 2010 @ 02:51 am EDT
The shiny metal advanced for the second day ahead of the Fed's two-day meeting where policy makers are expected to leave interest rate low and may add to stimulus.
The Fed aims to boost recovery that started to show some sluggishness, thus it will probably keep borrowing cost near zero which Bernanke referred recently that he may purchase bonds beyond the $600 billion QE2 announced last month.
The expected monetary decision by the Fed is putting some pressure on the dollar that fell to one-week low versus the yen.
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar movements versus a basket of six major currencies slipped to a low of 79.21 from the day's opening at 79.32 as the breach of 80.00 levels paved the way for further decline.
Accordingly, dollar-dominated commodities rose where oil soared to a high of $88.72 a barrel from yesterday's closing of $88.20, while spot gold surged to a high of $1405.70 an ounce after it recorded a low of $1393.80.
Among other precious metals, platinum inched down to $1704.70 from the day's opening at $1705.70, palladium increased to $758.20 from $757.00 and silver soared to $29.83 from $28.73, as of 07:45 GMT.
Gold, which climbed near to 30% this year, is benefiting from the dollar's decline and as an inflation hedge where the second round stimulus announced by some central banks is expected to push inflation levels higher.
In China, inflation rose to 5.1% in November from 4.4% in October to record the most rapid pace in 28 months, according to consumer prices inflation gauge.
The leap above the government's target of 3% may prompt policy makers to raise interest rate again in the coming months after raising it in October by 50 basis points.
Later in the day, UK inflation is expected to remain above the target at 3.2% in November and German investor confidence to show improvement in December.
The previous session, gold added $8.70 or 0.63% to close at $1393.89, while gold price was setin London at $1399.00 per ounce inclining from $1388.25 during the AM fixing.
The shiny metal advanced for the second day ahead of the Fed's two-day meeting where policy makers are expected to leave interest rate low and may add to stimulus.
The Fed aims to boost recovery that started to show some sluggishness, thus it will probably keep borrowing cost near zero which Bernanke referred recently that he may purchase bonds beyond the $600 billion QE2 announced last month.
The expected monetary decision by the Fed is putting some pressure on the dollar that fell to one-week low versus the yen.
The dollar index, which tracks the dollar movements versus a basket of six major currencies slipped to a low of 79.21 from the day's opening at 79.32 as the breach of 80.00 levels paved the way for further decline.
Accordingly, dollar-dominated commodities rose where oil soared to a high of $88.72 a barrel from yesterday's closing of $88.20, while spot gold surged to a high of $1405.70 an ounce after it recorded a low of $1393.80.
Among other precious metals, platinum inched down to $1704.70 from the day's opening at $1705.70, palladium increased to $758.20 from $757.00 and silver soared to $29.83 from $28.73, as of 07:45 GMT.
Gold, which climbed near to 30% this year, is benefiting from the dollar's decline and as an inflation hedge where the second round stimulus announced by some central banks is expected to push inflation levels higher.
In China, inflation rose to 5.1% in November from 4.4% in October to record the most rapid pace in 28 months, according to consumer prices inflation gauge.
The leap above the government's target of 3% may prompt policy makers to raise interest rate again in the coming months after raising it in October by 50 basis points.
Later in the day, UK inflation is expected to remain above the target at 3.2% in November and German investor confidence to show improvement in December.
The previous session, gold added $8.70 or 0.63% to close at $1393.89, while gold price was setin London at $1399.00 per ounce inclining from $1388.25 during the AM fixing.
Monday, November 15, 2010
La Nina, Chinese Demand Set to Drive Up Coal Prices
Rebekah Kebede & Fitri Wulandari | November 15, 2010
Storing coal in China’s Shanxi province. Due to La Nina rain, high prices are expected this winter. (Reuters Photo) Storing coal in China’s Shanxi province. Due to La Nina rain, high prices are expected this winter. (Reuters Photo)
Jakarta. A strong La Nina weather effect threatens more drenching of waterlogged coal production areas in Australia and Indonesia over the next six months, cutting exports and driving up prices just as Chinese winter demand kicks in.
As a result, prices for Australia’s thermal coal, the Asian benchmark, could move as high as $120 per ton before the end of the year, from around $109 now, said Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at ANZ Bank in Sydney. A price above $120 would be the highest since September 2008.
“The likelihood of a strong winter coming through in north Asia, dovetailed with what looks like a pretty tight supply backdrop, will probably see the market move up another $10 a ton,” he said.
Australia is the world’s largest coal exporter and, combined with Indonesia, produces more than 10 percent of the world’s thermal coal supplies.
The La Nina effect has raised forecasts for rainfall in both top coal exporters, upping the number of cyclones expected in Australia’s northeastern coal belt to six or seven from an average four.
“We’re heading into the time of year between now and April next year where cyclone season hits up north,” said Gavin Wendt, a senior resource analyst at Mine Life in Sydney.
“We always get a seasonal spike in thermal coal pricing around about this time of the year, but that’s going to be exacerbated by strong Chinese demand, and don’t forget Indian buying as well.”
Chinese demand has escalated recently as the world’s largest coal consumer tries to stockpile ahead of a frosty winter, with buyers hunting for coal deals in Asia and also casting their nets further afield, most recently striking a deal for South African coal.
Although Chinese stockpiles are relatively high at more than six million tons, spot supplies in China have tightened over the past month as cold weather disrupted some coal production.
“I think we’ll find that the Chinese will restock quite aggressively in December,” Pervan said.
Indian import demand for coal is expected to grow by more than 80 percent by 2012, and India, already one of Indonesia’s main customers, is expected to feed its coal appetite from Indonesia.
Unseasonably wet weather has already hit Indonesian production, particularly from smaller miners, and with months of rain still ahead, exports are likely to be affected into 2011.
“The majority of Indonesian coal producers have already seen their output falling about 5 to 10 percent below where they usually are … this time of year,” said Andreas Bokkenheuser, an analyst with UBS in Singapore.
Smaller miners have been particularly hard hit as they fall months behind their output targets, wiping out tonnage they need to ship for existing contracts.
“We have to reject requests from buyers even for next year delivery because we don’t have any coal,” said one East Kalimantan producer with an output of about 200,000 tons a month.
Some of Australia’s thermal coal production has already been affected by unseasonal rains in Queensland state, which produces mostly coking coal.
Predictions that northeastern Australia will get soaked this season point to a high probability that the world’s largest coal port, Newcastle, will suffer backlogs this season, analysts said.
Wet weather has resulted in export disruptions from Newcastle as both production and transport to the port are derailed. Some in the industry have warned that this cyclone season may resemble the 2007-08 season, when strong demand before the global financial crisis combined with wet weather to cause prices of both coking and thermal coal to spike.
“Time will tell how much damage La Nina can make, but at the current stage, it’s not looking good at all. It will be 2007 all over again,” one Sydney-based trader said.
Storing coal in China’s Shanxi province. Due to La Nina rain, high prices are expected this winter. (Reuters Photo) Storing coal in China’s Shanxi province. Due to La Nina rain, high prices are expected this winter. (Reuters Photo)
Jakarta. A strong La Nina weather effect threatens more drenching of waterlogged coal production areas in Australia and Indonesia over the next six months, cutting exports and driving up prices just as Chinese winter demand kicks in.
As a result, prices for Australia’s thermal coal, the Asian benchmark, could move as high as $120 per ton before the end of the year, from around $109 now, said Mark Pervan, head of commodity research at ANZ Bank in Sydney. A price above $120 would be the highest since September 2008.
“The likelihood of a strong winter coming through in north Asia, dovetailed with what looks like a pretty tight supply backdrop, will probably see the market move up another $10 a ton,” he said.
Australia is the world’s largest coal exporter and, combined with Indonesia, produces more than 10 percent of the world’s thermal coal supplies.
The La Nina effect has raised forecasts for rainfall in both top coal exporters, upping the number of cyclones expected in Australia’s northeastern coal belt to six or seven from an average four.
“We’re heading into the time of year between now and April next year where cyclone season hits up north,” said Gavin Wendt, a senior resource analyst at Mine Life in Sydney.
“We always get a seasonal spike in thermal coal pricing around about this time of the year, but that’s going to be exacerbated by strong Chinese demand, and don’t forget Indian buying as well.”
Chinese demand has escalated recently as the world’s largest coal consumer tries to stockpile ahead of a frosty winter, with buyers hunting for coal deals in Asia and also casting their nets further afield, most recently striking a deal for South African coal.
Although Chinese stockpiles are relatively high at more than six million tons, spot supplies in China have tightened over the past month as cold weather disrupted some coal production.
“I think we’ll find that the Chinese will restock quite aggressively in December,” Pervan said.
Indian import demand for coal is expected to grow by more than 80 percent by 2012, and India, already one of Indonesia’s main customers, is expected to feed its coal appetite from Indonesia.
Unseasonably wet weather has already hit Indonesian production, particularly from smaller miners, and with months of rain still ahead, exports are likely to be affected into 2011.
“The majority of Indonesian coal producers have already seen their output falling about 5 to 10 percent below where they usually are … this time of year,” said Andreas Bokkenheuser, an analyst with UBS in Singapore.
Smaller miners have been particularly hard hit as they fall months behind their output targets, wiping out tonnage they need to ship for existing contracts.
“We have to reject requests from buyers even for next year delivery because we don’t have any coal,” said one East Kalimantan producer with an output of about 200,000 tons a month.
Some of Australia’s thermal coal production has already been affected by unseasonal rains in Queensland state, which produces mostly coking coal.
Predictions that northeastern Australia will get soaked this season point to a high probability that the world’s largest coal port, Newcastle, will suffer backlogs this season, analysts said.
Wet weather has resulted in export disruptions from Newcastle as both production and transport to the port are derailed. Some in the industry have warned that this cyclone season may resemble the 2007-08 season, when strong demand before the global financial crisis combined with wet weather to cause prices of both coking and thermal coal to spike.
“Time will tell how much damage La Nina can make, but at the current stage, it’s not looking good at all. It will be 2007 all over again,” one Sydney-based trader said.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Investors sentiment index ISEE is now at highest level in 5o days
Investors sentiment index ISEE is now at highest level in 5o days
ISEE
ISEE
135 10/20/2010
10-Day Moving Average 128 10/7/2010-10/20/2010
20-Day Moving Average 125 9/23/2010-10/20/2010
50-Day Moving Average 114 8/11/2010-10/20/2010
52-Week High 185 4/15/2010
52-Week Low 59 5/7/2010
ISEE
ISEE
135 10/20/2010
10-Day Moving Average 128 10/7/2010-10/20/2010
20-Day Moving Average 125 9/23/2010-10/20/2010
50-Day Moving Average 114 8/11/2010-10/20/2010
52-Week High 185 4/15/2010
52-Week Low 59 5/7/2010
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK: Gold $1,347.50; Bull Trend Intact
- Barclays
06-Oct-2010
2218 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold bid $1,347.50/oz, down $1.60 from late NY, off a little from late yesterday's all-time high at $1,349.80, helped by a weak USD. ICE Dollar Index, which tracks USD against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, traded yesterday at its lowest level since January. Barclays Capital says is concerned gold getting too much media attention and market speculation. "This makes us more watchful for signs of a short-term top," it says in a technical analysis issued this morning. However, USD remains offered and gold charts have done nothing wrong, it says. Indeed, momentum, positioning, constructive seasonal pattern keep 4Q focus higher toward long-term channel resistance in $1,440 area into year-end, says Barclays, which puts initial support near old channel highs at $1,325, then last Thursday's low at $1,296. Bears need a break of $1,280, which is 2-month channel support and 21-day moving average, to damage the 3-month bull trend "and that isn't likely," it says. (ray.brindal@dowjones.com)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
06-Oct-2010
2218 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold bid $1,347.50/oz, down $1.60 from late NY, off a little from late yesterday's all-time high at $1,349.80, helped by a weak USD. ICE Dollar Index, which tracks USD against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, traded yesterday at its lowest level since January. Barclays Capital says is concerned gold getting too much media attention and market speculation. "This makes us more watchful for signs of a short-term top," it says in a technical analysis issued this morning. However, USD remains offered and gold charts have done nothing wrong, it says. Indeed, momentum, positioning, constructive seasonal pattern keep 4Q focus higher toward long-term channel resistance in $1,440 area into year-end, says Barclays, which puts initial support near old channel highs at $1,325, then last Thursday's low at $1,296. Bears need a break of $1,280, which is 2-month channel support and 21-day moving average, to damage the 3-month bull trend "and that isn't likely," it says. (ray.brindal@dowjones.com)
Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com
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