Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Financial Markets Hit by a Double Whammy

The world's financial markets got hit by a double whammy in the last two days with first an announcement coming late Tuesday, Bali Time, that Greece’s bonds have been lowered to junk status by rating services. The second whammy was an intense televised investigation by the United States Senate into possible securities violations by the largest security firm in the United States, Goldman Sachs.
I watched the proceedings and saw United States Senators lower themselves trying to use this case as a showcase to support the passing of Obama's current legislation which will put heavy regulation on the financial markets in the near future.
I was very surprised by one senator who quoted obscene language on national television. Television broadcasters using the same language would be fined or fired. I can hear parent’s children saying the same words and when being scolded saying but mommy a senator said that on TV.
My conclusion after observing the investigation was that Goldman Sachs was accused for wrongdoing simply because of the personal opinions of a few brokers expressed in interoffice emails.
This is the same company that the U.S. government used taxpayer’s money to bail out last year. Goldman Sachs has played back all the money plus an annualized 23% return.
I watched closely Goldman Sachs stock during the televised spectacle and I was convinced that other sophisticated investors believe that this is the modern equivalent of the Spanish Inquisition since the stock value actually rose $1.00 during the show.
The old saying goes “You can't fight City Hall” and fighting the U.S. federal government is even more difficult for anyone who's ever tried it. They have unlimited resources and young attorneys biting at the bullet who are trying to make a name for themselves with its high profile cases.
Goldman Sachs will probably lose and be forced to pay a huge fine which will be just a drop in the bucket of their current earnings.
I believe this Goldman Sachs controversy will pass soon. Obama will pass his legislation hiring more government officials at more tax payer costs.
I hope they're not the same S.E.C. officials that were caught watching porn while they were supposed to watching the financial markets and let guys like Bernard Madoff cheat investors for hundreds of millions. A classic example of one hand not knowing what the other hand is doing.
In the end the markets should return to what really counts and that is that companies are making money and the economy is recovering.
I sincerely believe we still have another major leg of this bull market in stocks and commodity markets merely because we have not had the small investor enter the market yet.
When moms and pops are investing their retirement plans back into the market I will look for an exit strategy.
Until then I am buying more Canadian dollars on dips which went above par earlier this week and then fell 1%.
Finally as my readers have been well aware I've been very bullish on the Indonesian rupiah and economy. My beliefs have been validated with the rupiah hitting a 33 month high this week against the United States dollar at very close to 9,000 rupiah to the Dollar. If you had taken my advice and kept your savings in Indonesia bank accounts offering 5% to 6% interest would have walked away with a 10% to 16% return on your bank account against the U.S.D. Not bad considering bank accounts in most other countries are offering 1% to 2%.
If you're really worried about a Greece default affecting the Euro and U.S.D. Buy more gold, silver, Palladium and Canadian dollars.
The best returns will be on Bali or Lombok beachfront properties starting at $79,000 which I expect to double or triple in the next 3-10 years.

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